تحليل مكاني لتغيّر توزيع سكان محافظة القادسية للمدة 1997 – 2017 وافاقه المستقبلية

Abstract

A spatial analysis of the population distribution change in Qadisiyah Government  for the period 1997-2017 and the future prospects

The study has explained clarifying changes that occurred in the population distribution of Qadisiyah Government in the period 1997-2017 as well as it is trying to know future prospects until 2027. The research  disclosed which the measures of population distribution changes are important measures that can analyze the images of change in distribution via accurate and real digital. Therefore, the study concluded that the values of absolute change in the population of Qadisiya Government in period (1997-2007) and in the period (2007 - 2017) where reached (239152, 267206) respectively. The study also showed that the ratio in the distribution will rise in the future clearly to reach (398290) people in (2017 - 2027). The Diwaniyah city presided on all  the rest of cities in of t  of the value of absolute change and this is due to it is center of Qadisiyah Government where the government departments, industry, markets and job opportunities, which makes it a polarization area for residents of the rest of the provinces of the Government. While other counties exchanged their rank each other, In addition, the center of Diwaniyah government ranked first in terms of the value of absolute change. Also, the small administrative units exchanged their rank during the period (1997-2027), as well as the decline in the relative change in the population of the study area to (27%) during the second period than in the first period (31.8%), and it is expected that it will rise in the future to (31.7%). The Qadisiyah government districts exchanged their values with the values of the change index during the first and second periods, which showed the highest value of the change index (121.3%) in the Hamzah district. The main reason for this is due to the high rate of population growth in the Hamza district, where it reached (4.4%) after it was (2.8%) during the first period, 71.3%). Finally, the percentage will reach the highest value of the future guide to change (102.2%) will be in the district of Diwaniyah, where the standard score for the distribution of the guide to change the population of Qadisiyah during the period of study to the existence of four levels of distribution varied in administrative units and the percentage of absolute change.