اثر التغير المناخي في تكرار المنخفضات الجوية الشبيهة بالإعصار المداري على البحر المتوسط

الملخص

The research aims at detecting the effect of climate change on the recurrence of a type of atmospheric depression on the Mediterranean basin similar in characteristics to tropical cyclones. The wind speed data recorded in the Greek meteorological site data were compared with the weather maps data published on the site of the US Atmospheric Atmosphere Agency From 1950 to 2018The frequency of the number of days of survival of the first cyclone system was monitored within the speed of winds ranging from 99-112km / h as a Mediterranean cyclone according to the Safir- Simpson classification of the Atlantic cyclones. During the climatic cycles in the research, there was a general trend of increasing frequency and number of days of survival of this type of depression on the sea The average in relation to the climatic cycle and record the highest rates in the fourth climate cycle 2002 / 2003-2017 / 2018The trend in increasing frequency of this type of depression was associated with changes in sea surface temperature, which increased due to climate change. The spatial variation of the distribution of this type of depression showed that the middle section of the Mediterranean Sea was more frequent than the western section because of the surface area Which gives greater momentum to the conditions of atmospheric instability associated with the formation of the low. The future simulation of the prediction of the recurrence of this type of depression showed an increase in frequency and the number of days of its survival consistent with the trends of climate change, especially warming trends, Water temperature.